7 Day Outlook

The 7 Day Outlook table summarises the demand, supply and reserve at the time of forecast daily peak demand for each NEM region over the next seven days.

This information is extracted from the latest STPASA public report - http://www.nemweb.com.au/REPORTS/CURRENT/Short_Term_PASA_Reports/

7 Day Supply and Demand Outlook

Forecast Supply and Demand at Peak for NEM Regions (figures in MW)

Region Date 22-May-12 23-May-12 24-May-12 25-May-12 26-May-12 27-May-12 28-May-12
NSW Demand 10770 10720 10940 11110 10680 10726 8225
Supply 13871 13843 13954 13995 13250 13247 11466
Reserve 3686 3713 3701 3595 3770 3781 4879
Time 18:30 18:30 18:30 18:00 18:00 18:30 00:30
QLD Demand 6891 6902 6882 6722 6442 6520 5150
Supply 9106 9107 9257 10874 10787 10938 10559
Reserve 2070 2058 2279 4222 4041 4115 5513
Time 18:00 18:00 18:00 18:00 18:00 18:30 00:30
SA Demand 1866 2017 2083 2181 1972 2032 1756
Supply 2859 2951 2896 2789 2794 2777 2780
Reserve 1337 1541 1285 964 1160 1103 1418
Time 19:00 19:00 19:00 19:00 19:00 19:00 00:30
TAS Demand 1272 1395 1453 1479 1320 1363 1022
Supply 2175 2111 2111 2096 2304 2304 2304
Reserve 1381 1194 1136 1095 1462 1419 1760
Time 18:00 18:00 18:00 08:30 18:00 18:30 00:30
VIC Demand 7200 7313 7542 7498 6640 6834 5309
Supply 8996 8993 9017 9053 8962 8993 8853
Reserve 3247 3126 2926 2989 3778 3600 4968
Time 18:30 18:30 18:00 18:00 18:30 18:30 00:30

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Explanation of terms

The following explains the source of the items on the above table.  Note that all these items are forecast results from the STPASA Outage LRC run, and are relevant to the peak demand period of each day.

Demand:
The most likely peak demand for the region based on weather adjusted forecasts by AEMO with a 50% probability of exceedance, to be met by scheduled generation (either locally or via interconnector imports).

Supply:
Total generating capacity that is available within the selected region, based on the Maximum Availability of all scheduled generation within that region (as advised by the relevant Generators), subjected to any network constraints and/or daily energy limitations on that generation. This figure includes net export to other regions and excludes net import from other regions via interconnectors.

Reserve:

  • Reserve: The supply available to a region in excess of the scheduled demand including supply from other regions through interconnectors.

Time:
The time of the forecast daily peak demand in Eastern Standard Time.

Table items in terms of MMS Data Model:

Table Item

In terms of MMS Data Model…


Supply


=   STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION.ConstrainedCapacity +
     STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION.Unconstrained Capacity


Demand


=   STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION.Demand50


Reserve


=   Supply + Net Import – Demand

=   STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION.SurplusCapacity

=   STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION.ConstrainedCapacity +
     STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION.Unconstrained Capacity -    
     STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION. LORNetInterchangeUnderScarcity –
     STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION. Demand50

 

Time


=   STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION. Interval_DateTime