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  • National Gas Forecasting Report

  • In this section
    • In this section
      National planning and forecasting
      • National Gas Forecasting Report
      • Gas Statement of Opportunities
      • Victorian Gas Planning Report
      • WA Gas Statement of Opportunities
  • From 2018, AEMO’s gas demand forecasts are now published as part of the Gas Statement of Opportunities.

    The National Gas Forecasting Report (NGFR) is AEMO’s forecast of annual gas consumption and maximum gas demand for the eastern and south-eastern Australia gas region over a 20-year outlook period.

    To view the data in a dynamic interface, please visit http://forecasting.aemo.com.au

    2016
    NGFR and supporting material External Consultant Reports 
    2016 NGFR Report LNG Supply Demand Price Forecasts and Risk Analysis – FGE  
    2016 National Gas Forecasting Report (NGFR)  Infographic NGFR Gas Price Review Final Report – Core Energy 
    2016 National Gas Forecasting Report AEMO Media Release Projections of Gas and Electricity Used in LNG – Lewis Grey Advisory
    2016 National Gas Forecasting Report Methodology Information Paper  
    2015
    NGFR and supporting material External Consultant Reports
    2015 National Gas Forecasting Report v2.0 – 2 March 2016 AEMO Gas Price Consultancy – Core Energy Group
    2015 National Gas Forecasting Report Methodology Information Paper Projections of Gas and Electricity Used in LNG – Lewis Grey Advisory
    2015 National Gas Forecasting Report Data File  Projections of Gas and Electricity Used in LNG – Lewis Grey Advisory – Initial Report
    2015 National Gas Forecasting Report Infographic One  
    2015 National Gas Forecasting Report Infographic Two  
    Archive
    2014 National Gas Forecasting Report (NGFR)
    17 December 2014 | 3.49 MB (.pdf)

     Final forecasts

    2014 NGFR - Eastern and south-eastern Australia
    17 December 2014 | 286 KB (.pdf) | 171 KB (.xls)
    2014 NGFR - NSW
    17 December 2014 | 455 KB (.pdf) | 270 KB (.xls)
    2014 NGFR - QLD
    17 December 2014 | 458 KB (.pdf) | 347 KB (.xls)
    2014 NGFR - SA
    17 December 2014 | 470 KB (.pdf) | 470 KB (.xls)
    2014 NGFR - TAS
    17 December 2014 | 386 KB (.pdf) | 241 KB (.xls)
    2014 NGFR - VIC
    17 December 2014 | 501 KB (.pdf) | 272 KB (.xls)
    Gas Consumption Forecasting Methodology

    ACIL Allen Consulting (ACIL) was engaged to develop a methodology for forecasting gas consumption in eastern and south-eastern Australia for the mass market and large industrial sectors. ACIL recommends using a time series approach for the residential and commercial sectors and a survey approach for the large industrial sector. Post-model adjustments will be applied when necessary.

    A summary of key feedback from external stakeholders on the draft gas forecasting methodology, along with AEMO’s comments and resulting action item is also published.

    Gas Consumption Forecasting Methodology
    30 June 2014 | filesize: 1.99 MB (.pdf)
    Summary of Feedback - Draft Gas Forecasting Methodology
    31 July 2014 | filesize: 295 KB (.pdf)
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